The United States has ceased to be relevant

August 25, 2007 at 3:53 pm | Posted in democracy, Iran, Iraq, Islam, Shia, Sunni, USA | 4 Comments

The relationship between Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Malaki and the U.S. dictatorship in Iraq, which has always been tempestuous, has now deteriorated further. Much to the annoyance of his U.S. overlords; al-Malaki rubbished the preposterous claims that Iran is destabilising Iraq as the U.S. Government likes to claim.  In fact al-Malaki pointed out the reverse is true and thanked Iran  for its “positive and constructive” role in “providing security and fighting terrorism in Iraq”.

The comment not only earned rebuke from the beleaguered U.S. President, they also led to the following threat:  “my message to him is, is that when we catch you playing a non-constructive role there will be a price to pay.” 

A rebuke that Prime Minister Nuri al-Malaki is not going to heed.  His response the U.S. President criticism of his administration was even more assertive. He said:    

“No one has the right to place timetables on the Iraq government. It was elected by its people. Those who make such statements are bothered by our visit to Syria. We will pay no attention. We care for our people and our constitution, and can find friends elsewhere.” 

This statement represents a recognition in the Iraq government of the now irrelevance of the United States: the ignominious defeat of British forces in the South and the failure of the U.S. surge to quell the rise of factional violence or the insurgency has left al-Malaki government in no doubt that the U.S. forces have to all intents and purposes already been defeated and that there is no appetite in the United States to reverse that outcome:  troop withdrawal is inevitable.    

Thus al-Malaki is looking to the future; a future in which the United States’ role in Iraq will be limited; he is no doubt also aware that should Hillary Clinton win the U.S. presidency he would not be able to count on her support. She said this week that Iraq needs a “less divisive and more unifying figure.”

In fact whilst politicians in the United States make much of the Iraq’s sectarian divisions and urge a national unity government, this is fundamentally undemocratic and quite fraudulent, it is not for Iraq’s sake that they wish a pluralist government. An estimated 63% of the population are Shia. However, that is only if one includes Kurdistan, which is effectively a separate entity from Iraq. Certainly the main Kurdish parties are separatists. Thus if the Kurds are discounted, and properly they should be, since they do not consider themselves Iraqis; Shia constitute nearly 79% of the Iraqi population and Sunnis only 21%. Thus the sectarian divisions in Iraq are overplayed; in truth Iraq is a Shia country.

It is this reality that the United States government continues to supress:  were they ever serious about installing democracy, they would support Shia majority rule and an Iranian style Islamic democracy; instead of doing all they could to prevent it. Yet it is clear that the United States cares little for Iraqi democracy; preferring anarchy and civil war to another autonomous Shia state in the region. 

As ineffectual as al-Malaki has been as premier, the fact that he was willing to publicly chastise the U.S.A. and actively court Iranian and Syrian influence, despite incurring Washington’s displeasure, is significant since it reflects the mood on the street. 

Crackdown on the Mahdi army or posturing?

January 21, 2007 at 2:45 pm | Posted in Iraq, Mahdi army, Sadr, Shia, Sunni, USA | Leave a comment

“The first causality in war is the truth”
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said 400 fighters from the Mahdi Army army had been arrested over the past several weeks. Although, Yassin Majid, a senior al-Maliki adviser, denied earlier reports that dozens of senior militia leaders had been detained were incorrect.

In fact, US Occupation forces and the Iraqi army raided Um al-Maalef, a Shiite neighborhood in south Baghdad, on Tuesday and, detained every man who was able to carry weapons – about 400 people in all – nearly all who have been subsequently released. The Mahdi army did not respond under orders from Sayyed al-Sadr and no weapons were recovered. US troops did not enter civilian houses during the raid. No one was killed during this raid. Compare this with the raid in al Haifa street (a Sunnite stronghold) where over 50 were killed in one day.

United States Posturing in Iraq

January 12, 2007 at 3:09 pm | Posted in Iraq, Kurd, Sadr, SCIRI, Shia, Sunni, USA | Leave a comment

The Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq is peripheral to the real power struggle between Sayyed al-Hakim and Sayyed al-Sadr. The Shia are an estimated 63-66% of Iraq but that power struggle, should it become an open war, would not involve the Shia; all of Iraq would be drawn into the conflict. The Sunni Arabs would mainly supporting Sayyed al-Sadr whilst conversely the Kurds would support Sayyed al-Hakim.

Ayatullah al-Uzma al-Sistani has been trying to defuse this conflict and consequently flatly rejected the US plan. Last Sunday he summoned Sayyed Moqtada al-Sadr to his Najaf residence and asked for his support, he had previously conveyed to Sayyed al-Hakim that Sayyed al-Sadr must not be sidelined.

A deal has been provisionally reached where the United States deploys an additional 21,500 troops in Baghdad and Anbar province, whilst there is a redeployment of Iraq troops to Baghdad. Hence, the United States is withdrawing and despite its bravado about taking on the Mahdi army in a finally push, this is unlikely; the US cannot possibly hope to take on Sayyed al-Sadr with a positive result, nor would al-Malaki have the support to do so.

It is likely that the US will do as it did this week in in Hafia, concentrate on the Sunnite areas and leave Sadr city ostensibly to the Iraqi army but in reality it will remain firmly in the grasp of the Mahdi army. There may be some limited token clashes to give the appearance of even handedness, however it is preposterous to think that the United States envisages being able to destroy the Mahdi army with these reinforcements; there are two-and-half million in al-Sadr city, so an additional 17,500 US troops (4,000 are to be deployed in Anbar province) is not nearly enough. This is little more than posturing and ill-advised: posturing has not served the United States well in Iraq – it has resulted in the death of over 3,000 US military personnel.

Iraq Study Group Report is Delusional

December 8, 2006 at 4:19 am | Posted in Hakim, Iran, Iraq, Kurd, Sadr, Shia, Sunni, USA | 8 Comments

Iraq politicians have been decidedly nonchalant about the Iraq Study Group’s report; the Iraqi media even more so and most the public are unaware of it. Their disregard is well founded. Even if the report does make a bleaker assessment of the situation in Iraq than the US Government has hitherto been prepared to acknowledge, it is still a reiteration of many of the usual accusations, fabrications, distortions and half-truths. It is either spectacularly dishonest or spectacularly delusional in avoiding the underlying reality; namely, the United States is exacerbating the anarchy in Iraq by both its presence and continued interference. Whilst the reports acknowledges that Iraq is currently not governed as a unitary state and is quick to criticise Iraq’s politicians for being sectarian, it fails to point out that the United States has been deliberately fermenting factional conflict.

Even the lexicon of the report owes more to propaganda than reality – the Shia, Sunni, Kurdish, Taqfiri and Baathist factions all have their militias, they are all involved in ethnic-cleansing and all have divided loyalties – yet in the report Shia militias are described as “death squads”, the Sunni Militias as “insurgents” and the Kurdish militias as “security forces”. The United States has consistently opposed the Shia majority; it is this more than anything that has led to the present state of anarchy.

It is quite apparent that the current Iraqi government – a government in name only – it is simply incapable of imposing central rule. In fact, Iraq is no longer a unitary State. Yet the United States is still trying to impose central rule. This is dangerous myopia. Yet whilst acknowledging that the situation is spiraling out of control, the report continues to advocate propping up the defunct al-Malki Government. Hence it is delusional.

The two most powerful men in Iraq are Sayyed al-Hakim (SCIRI) and Sayyed al-Sadr (Sadrists). Sayyed al-Hakim, like the Iraqi President, Jalal Talabani (PUK), Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Malaki (Dawa) and Kurdistan Regional Government President, Massoud Barzani (KDP) supports the dissolution of Iraq. Whereas Sayyed al-Sadr, like the Sunnite Iraqi Vice President, Tariq al-Hashimi (IIP) and Sheikh Harith Al Dhari (Association of Muslims Scholars) support centralism. Yet al-Malaki, like the previous elected Prime Minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, is dependent upon the support of Sayyed al-Sadr, which was withdrawn last week, after his meeting with Bush in Jordan. Therefore the United States will have to reappraise its relationship with the SCIRI and its Badr militia, since the al-Malaki Government is dependent upon the goodwill of Sayyed al-Hakim, without which it will fall.

The report calls for an international regional conference, a move that is strongly resisted by Sayyed al-Hakim and Jalal Talabani, since contrary to US claims, it is Saudi Arabia that is actively destabilising Iraq; not Iran or Syria. In fact, Iran is the only stabilising force in Iraq, a point that both Jalal Talabani and Sayyed al-Hakim have made last week. The report should have recommended that, as a matter of imperative, the United States should desist from making baseless accusations against Iran, since the propaganda is fuelling the Shia-Sunni sectarian conflict and undermines the current Shia led Government. Therefore until the united States is prepared to move beyond the limits of its own propaganda; it is far from clear what the Iraq Study Group expects to be gained from direct talks with Iran and Syria: the United States is certainly not about to request Iran dispatch the IRGC into Basra to bolster the Badr numbers, so that they might drive the Mahdi Army out of Southern Iraq.

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